Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.736359 3.291834 3.913897 4.659570 5.526394 6.499457 7.671514
2025-04-20 1.978634 2.731529 3.676215 4.935906 6.557196 8.557913 11.195672
2025-04-27 1.461525 2.277286 3.406466 5.053003 7.355801 10.419711 14.753007
2025-05-04 1.145920 1.986141 3.252330 5.243487 8.225921 12.442988 18.748876
2025-05-11 0.884159 1.693612 3.013166 5.235095 8.772015 14.045516 22.317532
2025-05-18 0.664822 1.404386 2.704909 5.041002 8.975734 15.133597 25.218449
2025-05-25 0.495519 1.153057 2.397884 4.776391 9.000860 15.915413 27.694969
2025-06-01 0.394087 1.002258 2.233187 4.718014 9.341282 17.207734 31.068546
2025-06-08 0.315615 0.875613 2.084532 4.655666 9.652252 18.464362 34.478682
2025-06-15 0.281245 0.838921 2.108437 4.925214 10.593368 20.878318 40.029086
2025-06-22 0.234880 0.758528 2.021040 4.951833 11.070535 22.508331 44.350014
2025-06-29 0.194375 0.680208 1.920648 4.931287 11.445922 23.978281 48.495214
2025-07-06 0.159245 0.606655 1.819364 4.900624 11.815426 25.507719 52.948850
2025-07-13 0.148737 0.604502 1.896704 5.293660 13.124084 28.960162 61.258977
2025-07-20 0.129773 0.568511 1.878246 5.456738 13.957725 31.559226 68.163239
2025-07-27 0.115388 0.542841 1.882136 5.674767 14.937272 34.531766 76.005465
2025-08-03 0.096442 0.492598 1.804142 5.670923 15.410477 36.509755 82.044017
2025-08-10 0.075856 0.425925 1.659589 5.464548 15.381532 37.433497 86.043267
2025-08-17 0.057892 0.360190 1.498838 5.181172 15.125400 37.840735 89.010892
2025-08-24 0.047439 0.322833 1.421178 5.118712 15.405697 39.435604 94.546780
2025-08-31 0.038799 0.289242 1.346922 5.051838 15.664393 41.000202 100.123613
2025-09-07 0.036141 0.286688 1.386305 5.341262 16.890217 44.858053 110.867743
2025-09-14 0.030718 0.264788 1.345634 5.369843 17.418582 47.140127 118.320205